How to read a TAF before you go (and when to stay on the ground)

November 14, 2026

A METAR tells you what the weather is doing right now. A TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) tells you what forecasters expect at that airport over the next day or so. If the METAR is the photo, the TAF is the weather plan, and it is the one that tells you whether you will get home.

If METARs are still new to you, start with How to read a METAR in 60 seconds. A TAF uses the same building blocks for wind, visibility, weather and clouds.

A real TAF, line by line

Here is the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International forecast issued on the afternoon of November 14, 2026, from the NOAA Aviation Weather Center:

TAF KFLL 142056Z 1421/1524 35008KT P6SM FEW150
  FM150000 34007KT P6SM FEW040
  FM151600 05010KT P6SM SCT050

That is a quiet, easy forecast: good visibility, no ceilings, light winds that swing around to the northeast. It is also a good reminder that times are in UTC. In November, Eastern time is UTC−5, so FM151600 means 11:00 AM local.

The change groups

Quiet forecasts only use FM. The interesting ones use the rest:

• FM (from): a rapid, lasting change at a specific time. Everything after it replaces what came before.
• BECMG (becoming): a gradual change over a window, such as BECMG 1512/1514, after which the new conditions hold.
• TEMPO (temporary): fluctuations that come and go within the window, each lasting less than an hour and together covering less than half of it. In South Florida summers, this is where the thunderstorms live.
• PROB30 / PROB40: a 30 or 40 percent chance of the conditions that follow during that window.

A worked summer example

The forecast below is illustrative only, written to show the groups you will see on a typical summer afternoon. It is not a real forecast.

TAF KXYZ 151130Z 1512/1612 09010KT P6SM SCT030
  TEMPO 1518/1522 3SM TSRA BKN025CB
  FM160200 VRB04KT P6SM SCT040

Read it as a story: a fine morning with an easterly sea breeze, then from 18:00 to 22:00 UTC (2 to 6 PM Eastern in summer) expect periods of thunderstorms with rain, 3 miles visibility and a broken cumulonimbus layer at 2,500 ft. After 02:00 UTC the storms are done and the winds go light.

The TEMPO line is the one that matters. Planning to come home at 4 PM? You are flying into the window where storms are forecast to come and go. That does not always mean “cancel.” It does mean you need a real plan: leave earlier, pick an alternate the storms are not forecast to reach, carry extra fuel, and be honest with yourself about your limits.

When to stay on the ground

A TAF does not make the go/no-go decision for you, but it gives you the questions to ask:

1. Does any line, including TEMPO and PROB, go below my personal minimums during my departure, en-route or arrival window? Plan for the worst line in your window, not the best one.
2. Is the trend getting worse? Compare the TAF with the latest METAR. If conditions are already worse than forecast, the forecast may be behind.
3. Where is my out? Check TAFs for alternates, not just the destination. Many small fields do not have a TAF at all; use the nearest ones and the area forecast products.
4. Am I racing a line? If the plan only works when everything happens exactly on schedule, it is not a plan.

Practice

Open the Pilot Lounge, type an airport code and read the TAF before you look at the decoded version. Then check back in a few hours and see how the forecast held up against the METARs. That habit, comparing forecast with reality, is what builds weather judgment.

Always get an official weather briefing before you fly. This page is for learning, not flight planning.

Sources

• NOAA Aviation Weather Center, TAF for KFLL issued 142056Z, November 14, 2026: aviationweather.gov
• FAA, Aviation Weather Handbook (FAA-H-8083-28B), forecasts chapter: faa.gov

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