Thanksgiving 2026 travel: when the crowds peak, and how to pack for a delayed trip
November 14, 2026
Thanksgiving is one of the busiest stretches of the year at U.S. airports, and this year it follows a bumpy November for air travel. Here is what the published forecasts say, and how to plan around them.
CrosswindBay is an independent site. The numbers below come from the AAA and Airlines for America forecasts linked at the bottom. They are projections, not counts.
What the forecasts say
AAA projects 81.5 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home for Thanksgiving between Tuesday, November 24 and Monday, November 30, 2026. That is slightly lower than last year’s 81.6 million, and it would end a three-year streak of record Thanksgiving travel (AAA).
- By air: AAA projects 5.96 million people will take domestic flights, about 0.2% fewer than last year. Based on what AAA travelers paid when they booked, AAA says round-trip domestic flights are about 17% more expensive this year, averaging $800 a ticket.
- By car: 72.9 million, nearly 90% of holiday travelers.
- Florida is the top domestic destination for AAA members who booked through AAA Travel. Orlando is first on AAA’s list, Fort Lauderdale second and Miami third.
Airlines for America (A4A), the U.S. airline trade group, projects U.S. airlines will carry nearly 29 million passengers over a longer window, November 20 through 30, or about 2.7 million a day on average. Airlines are offering about 38,000 more seats a day than in 2025, A4A says, and it expects the busiest days to be Sunday, November 29 and Monday, November 30 (A4A).
A note on the numbers: AAA and A4A measure different things over different dates. AAA counts domestic leisure “person-trips” (a round trip counts once), while airline passenger counts tally each flight. Do not add them together.
After a rough November, build in slack
The nationwide FAA ground stop on November 13 showed how fast one problem can ripple across the whole system. (Our explainer is here.) You cannot control that, but you can give yourself room:
- Fly earlier in the week if you can, and avoid the last flight of the day; it has nowhere to go if something goes wrong.
- Leave a day of margin before anything you cannot miss.
- Download your airline’s app before you travel; A4A also recommends it for flight updates and bag tracking.
- Arrive early. Holiday security lines, parking and curbside traffic all take longer.
- Know your refund rights if your flight is canceled; our ground-stop follow-up has a short tip sheet.
Pack for a delayed trip
The best holiday-travel bag assumes a delay:
- Carry-on essentials: medications, chargers and a power bank, a change of clothes, basic toiletries, snacks and an empty water bottle.
- Make your checked bag easy to spot, and put your name and phone number inside it as well as on the tag.
- Take a photo of your checked bag and its tag before you hand it over.
- For kids: a small bag of new activities they have not seen yet does wonders at hour three of a delay. The free CrosswindBay arcade has quick aviation games that run in a phone browser, no login needed.
From our shop
This section is our own products, separate from the forecast above. If your suitcase looks like every other black bag on the carousel, the CrosswindBay shop makes sectional-chart luggage covers, retro bag tags (Crosswind Bay Air Lines, Suncrest Airways, Coral Coast Air Lines and Skyhaven Airways) and totes that are hard to mistake for someone else’s.
Travel partners may appear in the box below only after we are approved for those programs; for now it shows placeholders.
Safe travels, and happy Thanksgiving.
Sources
- AAA (Mid States), “AAA 2026 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast”: https://www.midstates.aaa.com/thanksgiving-travel-forecast-2026
- Airlines for America, “U.S. Airlines Prepare for Busy Thanksgiving Travel Period Amid Record High Jet Fuel Costs,” November 10, 2026: https://www.airlines.org/news-update/u-s-airlines-prepare-for-busy-thanksgiving-travel-period-amid-record-high-jet-fuel-costs/